{ "meta": { "version": "1.0", "generated": "2026-10-28 (America/Chicago)", "scope": "Porsche 911 (991.1) Carrera, Carrera S, Carrera 4, Carrera 4S, GTS (incl. Carrera 4 GTS), Targa 4 and Targa 4S; MY2012-2016; coupe, Targa and cabriolet bodies (cabriolets included; coupe/Targa-only sensitivity provided). Not GT3, Turbo, 991.2 or 992. Out of scope for now: any car whose rear wing was replaced. ASSUMPTION pending CT: primary figures include Targa 4 GTS (1,345 units in the North America compilation).", "notes": "Labels: FACT = sourced figure; ESTIMATE = derived with stated assumptions (A1-A10); UNKNOWN = not found. Calendar-year deliveries are the base. Range = scenario envelope, not a confidence interval.", "factors": { "share_991_1_by_year": { "2012": [ 0.75, 0.85, 0.92 ], "2013": [ 0.97, 0.99, 1.0 ], "2014": [ 1, 1, 1 ], "2015": [ 0.97, 0.99, 1.0 ], "2016": [ 0.12, 0.25, 0.4 ] }, "in_scope_model_share": [ 0.65, 0.725, 0.8 ], "cabriolet_fraction": [ 0.45, 0.391, 0.33 ], "survival": [ 0.83, 0.9, 0.97 ] } }, "by_year": [ { "calendar_year": 2012, "region": "USA", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 8528, "deliveries_base": 8528, "deliveries_high": 8528, "in_scope_low": 4157, "in_scope_base": 5255, "in_scope_high": 6277, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S08", "note": "" }, { "calendar_year": 2012, "region": "Canada", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 582, "deliveries_base": 585, "deliveries_high": 588, "in_scope_low": 284, "in_scope_base": 361, "in_scope_high": 433, "label": "ESTIMATE", "source_id": "S01", "note": "back-cast from AR2013: 661 deliveries = +13% on prior year" }, { "calendar_year": 2012, "region": "Germany", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 5245, "deliveries_base": 5264, "deliveries_high": 5284, "in_scope_low": 2557, "in_scope_base": 3244, "in_scope_high": 3889, "label": "ESTIMATE", "source_id": "S01", "note": "back-cast from AR2013: 7,054 deliveries = +34% on prior year" }, { "calendar_year": 2012, "region": "UK", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": null, "deliveries_base": null, "deliveries_high": null, "in_scope_low": null, "in_scope_base": null, "in_scope_high": null, "label": "UNKNOWN", "source_id": "S01", "note": "AR2013 reports GB total (8,234, +2%) but gives no 2012 911 figure; folded into Other markets" }, { "calendar_year": 2012, "region": "China", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 948, "deliveries_base": 952, "deliveries_high": 955, "in_scope_low": 462, "in_scope_base": 587, "in_scope_high": 703, "label": "ESTIMATE", "source_id": "S01", "note": "back-cast from AR2013: 1,418 deliveries = +49% on prior year" }, { "calendar_year": 2012, "region": "Japan", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 941, "deliveries_base": 944, "deliveries_high": 948, "in_scope_low": 459, "in_scope_base": 582, "in_scope_high": 698, "label": "ESTIMATE", "source_id": "S01", "note": "back-cast from AR2013: 1,237 deliveries = +31% on prior year" }, { "calendar_year": 2012, "region": "Other markets", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 9154, "deliveries_base": 9184, "deliveries_high": 9959, "in_scope_low": 4463, "in_scope_base": 5660, "in_scope_high": 7330, "label": "ESTIMATE", "source_id": "S01", "note": "residual = global minus named markets; includes rest of Europe, Latin America, Middle East/Africa, Asia-Pacific, Korea, Russia; also contains UK 2012 (UNKNOWN)" }, { "calendar_year": 2012, "region": "Global", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 25457, "deliveries_base": 25457, "deliveries_high": 26203, "in_scope_low": 12410, "in_scope_base": 15688, "in_scope_high": 19285, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S01", "note": "" }, { "calendar_year": 2013, "region": "USA", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 10442, "deliveries_base": 10442, "deliveries_high": 10442, "in_scope_low": 6584, "in_scope_base": 7495, "in_scope_high": 8354, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S08", "note": "" }, { "calendar_year": 2013, "region": "Canada", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 661, "deliveries_base": 661, "deliveries_high": 661, "in_scope_low": 417, "in_scope_base": 474, "in_scope_high": 529, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S01", "note": "" }, { "calendar_year": 2013, "region": "Germany", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 7054, "deliveries_base": 7054, "deliveries_high": 7054, "in_scope_low": 4448, "in_scope_base": 5063, "in_scope_high": 5643, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S01", "note": "" }, { "calendar_year": 2013, "region": "UK", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 1541, "deliveries_base": 1541, "deliveries_high": 1541, "in_scope_low": 972, "in_scope_base": 1106, "in_scope_high": 1233, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S01", "note": "" }, { "calendar_year": 2013, "region": "China", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 1418, "deliveries_base": 1418, "deliveries_high": 1418, "in_scope_low": 894, "in_scope_base": 1018, "in_scope_high": 1134, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S01", "note": "" }, { "calendar_year": 2013, "region": "Japan", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 1237, "deliveries_base": 1237, "deliveries_high": 1237, "in_scope_low": 780, "in_scope_base": 888, "in_scope_high": 990, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S01", "note": "" }, { "calendar_year": 2013, "region": "Other markets", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 7852, "deliveries_base": 7852, "deliveries_high": 7852, "in_scope_low": 4951, "in_scope_base": 5636, "in_scope_high": 6282, "label": "ESTIMATE", "source_id": "S01", "note": "residual = global minus named markets; includes rest of Europe, Latin America, Middle East/Africa, Asia-Pacific, Korea, Russia" }, { "calendar_year": 2013, "region": "Global", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 30205, "deliveries_base": 30205, "deliveries_high": 30205, "in_scope_low": 19044, "in_scope_base": 21680, "in_scope_high": 24164, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S01", "note": "" }, { "calendar_year": 2014, "region": "USA", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 10433, "deliveries_base": 10433, "deliveries_high": 10433, "in_scope_low": 6781, "in_scope_base": 7564, "in_scope_high": 8346, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S09", "note": "911 only; PCNA all-911/918 line is 10,529" }, { "calendar_year": 2014, "region": "Canada", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 812, "deliveries_base": 812, "deliveries_high": 812, "in_scope_low": 528, "in_scope_base": 589, "in_scope_high": 650, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S02", "note": "incl. 918 Spyder" }, { "calendar_year": 2014, "region": "Germany", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 6960, "deliveries_base": 6960, "deliveries_high": 6960, "in_scope_low": 4524, "in_scope_base": 5046, "in_scope_high": 5568, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S02", "note": "incl. 918 Spyder" }, { "calendar_year": 2014, "region": "UK", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 1845, "deliveries_base": 1845, "deliveries_high": 1845, "in_scope_low": 1199, "in_scope_base": 1338, "in_scope_high": 1476, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S02", "note": "incl. 918 Spyder" }, { "calendar_year": 2014, "region": "China", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 1335, "deliveries_base": 1335, "deliveries_high": 1335, "in_scope_low": 868, "in_scope_base": 968, "in_scope_high": 1068, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S02", "note": "incl. 918 Spyder" }, { "calendar_year": 2014, "region": "Japan", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 1550, "deliveries_base": 1550, "deliveries_high": 1550, "in_scope_low": 1008, "in_scope_base": 1124, "in_scope_high": 1240, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S02", "note": "incl. 918 Spyder" }, { "calendar_year": 2014, "region": "Other markets", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 7575, "deliveries_base": 7575, "deliveries_high": 7575, "in_scope_low": 4924, "in_scope_base": 5492, "in_scope_high": 6060, "label": "ESTIMATE", "source_id": "S01", "note": "residual = global minus named markets; includes rest of Europe, Latin America, Middle East/Africa, Asia-Pacific, Korea, Russia" }, { "calendar_year": 2014, "region": "Global", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 30510, "deliveries_base": 30510, "deliveries_high": 30510, "in_scope_low": 19832, "in_scope_base": 22120, "in_scope_high": 24408, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S02", "note": "" }, { "calendar_year": 2015, "region": "USA", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 9898, "deliveries_base": 9898, "deliveries_high": 9898, "in_scope_low": 6241, "in_scope_base": 7104, "in_scope_high": 7918, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S03", "note": "" }, { "calendar_year": 2015, "region": "Canada", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 859, "deliveries_base": 859, "deliveries_high": 859, "in_scope_low": 542, "in_scope_base": 617, "in_scope_high": 687, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S03", "note": "" }, { "calendar_year": 2015, "region": "Germany", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 8574, "deliveries_base": 8574, "deliveries_high": 8574, "in_scope_low": 5406, "in_scope_base": 6154, "in_scope_high": 6859, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S03", "note": "" }, { "calendar_year": 2015, "region": "UK", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 1542, "deliveries_base": 1850, "deliveries_high": 2203, "in_scope_low": 972, "in_scope_base": 1328, "in_scope_high": 1762, "label": "ESTIMATE", "source_id": "S03", "note": "AR2015: 12,238 GB deliveries, 36% two-door; 911 assumed 35/42/50% of two-door (2014 actual 40.6%; DVLA 2015 registrations of about 1.74k imply the 911 share is not below about 40%)" }, { "calendar_year": 2015, "region": "China", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 1341, "deliveries_base": 1341, "deliveries_high": 1341, "in_scope_low": 846, "in_scope_base": 963, "in_scope_high": 1073, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S03", "note": "" }, { "calendar_year": 2015, "region": "Japan", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 1354, "deliveries_base": 1354, "deliveries_high": 1354, "in_scope_low": 854, "in_scope_base": 972, "in_scope_high": 1083, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S03", "note": "" }, { "calendar_year": 2015, "region": "Other markets", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 7121, "deliveries_base": 7474, "deliveries_high": 7782, "in_scope_low": 4490, "in_scope_base": 5364, "in_scope_high": 6226, "label": "ESTIMATE", "source_id": "S01", "note": "residual = global minus named markets; includes rest of Europe, Latin America, Middle East/Africa, Asia-Pacific, Korea, Russia" }, { "calendar_year": 2015, "region": "Global", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 31350, "deliveries_base": 31350, "deliveries_high": 31350, "in_scope_low": 19766, "in_scope_base": 22501, "in_scope_high": 25080, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S03", "note": "" }, { "calendar_year": 2016, "region": "USA", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 8901, "deliveries_base": 8901, "deliveries_high": 8901, "in_scope_low": 694, "in_scope_base": 1613, "in_scope_high": 2848, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S10", "note": "AR2016 prints 8,902 incl. 918 Spyder" }, { "calendar_year": 2016, "region": "Canada", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 946, "deliveries_base": 946, "deliveries_high": 946, "in_scope_low": 74, "in_scope_base": 171, "in_scope_high": 303, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S04", "note": "incl. 918 Spyder" }, { "calendar_year": 2016, "region": "Germany", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 8015, "deliveries_base": 8015, "deliveries_high": 8015, "in_scope_low": 625, "in_scope_base": 1453, "in_scope_high": 2565, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S04", "note": "incl. 918 Spyder" }, { "calendar_year": 2016, "region": "UK", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 1693, "deliveries_base": 2031, "deliveries_high": 2418, "in_scope_low": 132, "in_scope_base": 368, "in_scope_high": 774, "label": "ESTIMATE", "source_id": "S04", "note": "AR2016: 4,836 GB deliveries of 911 (incl. 918)+718 Boxster/Cayman (incl. 981); 911 assumed 35/42/50% of that" }, { "calendar_year": 2016, "region": "China", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 1492, "deliveries_base": 1492, "deliveries_high": 1492, "in_scope_low": 116, "in_scope_base": 270, "in_scope_high": 477, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S04", "note": "incl. 918 Spyder" }, { "calendar_year": 2016, "region": "Japan", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 1420, "deliveries_base": 1420, "deliveries_high": 1420, "in_scope_low": 111, "in_scope_base": 257, "in_scope_high": 454, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S04", "note": "" }, { "calendar_year": 2016, "region": "Other markets", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 9173, "deliveries_base": 9560, "deliveries_high": 9942, "in_scope_low": 715, "in_scope_base": 1733, "in_scope_high": 3181, "label": "ESTIMATE", "source_id": "S01", "note": "residual = global minus named markets; includes rest of Europe, Latin America, Middle East/Africa, Asia-Pacific, Korea, Russia" }, { "calendar_year": 2016, "region": "Global", "metric": "deliveries_all_911", "deliveries_low": 32365, "deliveries_base": 32365, "deliveries_high": 32409, "in_scope_low": 2524, "in_scope_base": 5866, "in_scope_high": 10371, "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S04", "note": "" } ], "by_region": [ { "region": "USA", "period": "2012-2016 calendar-year deliveries", "all_911_deliveries_low": 48202, "all_911_deliveries_base": 48202, "all_911_deliveries_high": 48202, "delivered_in_scope_low": 24457, "delivered_in_scope_base": 29032, "delivered_in_scope_high": 33743, "in_market_low": 20300, "in_market_base": 26128, "in_market_high": 32731, "share_of_global_base": 0.33, "label": "ESTIMATE", "note": "UK 2012 UNKNOWN (inside Other markets); UK 2015-16 ESTIMATE; Germany/China/Canada/Japan 2012 back-cast ESTIMATE" }, { "region": "Canada", "period": "2012-2016 calendar-year deliveries", "all_911_deliveries_low": 3860, "all_911_deliveries_base": 3863, "all_911_deliveries_high": 3866, "delivered_in_scope_low": 1844, "delivered_in_scope_base": 2212, "delivered_in_scope_high": 2601, "in_market_low": 1530, "in_market_base": 1990, "in_market_high": 2523, "share_of_global_base": 0.025, "label": "ESTIMATE", "note": "UK 2012 UNKNOWN (inside Other markets); UK 2015-16 ESTIMATE; Germany/China/Canada/Japan 2012 back-cast ESTIMATE" }, { "region": "Germany", "period": "2012-2016 calendar-year deliveries", "all_911_deliveries_low": 35848, "all_911_deliveries_base": 35867, "all_911_deliveries_high": 35887, "delivered_in_scope_low": 17560, "delivered_in_scope_base": 20960, "delivered_in_scope_high": 24524, "in_market_low": 14574, "in_market_base": 18864, "in_market_high": 23788, "share_of_global_base": 0.239, "label": "ESTIMATE", "note": "UK 2012 UNKNOWN (inside Other markets); UK 2015-16 ESTIMATE; Germany/China/Canada/Japan 2012 back-cast ESTIMATE" }, { "region": "UK", "period": "2012-2016 calendar-year deliveries", "all_911_deliveries_low": 6621, "all_911_deliveries_base": 7267, "all_911_deliveries_high": 8007, "delivered_in_scope_low": 3275, "delivered_in_scope_base": 4140, "delivered_in_scope_high": 5245, "in_market_low": 2718, "in_market_base": 3726, "in_market_high": 5088, "share_of_global_base": 0.047, "label": "ESTIMATE", "note": "UK 2012 UNKNOWN (inside Other markets); UK 2015-16 ESTIMATE; Germany/China/Canada/Japan 2012 back-cast ESTIMATE" }, { "region": "China", "period": "2012-2016 calendar-year deliveries", "all_911_deliveries_low": 6534, "all_911_deliveries_base": 6538, "all_911_deliveries_high": 6541, "delivered_in_scope_low": 3186, "delivered_in_scope_base": 3805, "delivered_in_scope_high": 4456, "in_market_low": 2644, "in_market_base": 3425, "in_market_high": 4322, "share_of_global_base": 0.043, "label": "ESTIMATE", "note": "UK 2012 UNKNOWN (inside Other markets); UK 2015-16 ESTIMATE; Germany/China/Canada/Japan 2012 back-cast ESTIMATE" }, { "region": "Japan", "period": "2012-2016 calendar-year deliveries", "all_911_deliveries_low": 6502, "all_911_deliveries_base": 6505, "all_911_deliveries_high": 6509, "delivered_in_scope_low": 3211, "delivered_in_scope_base": 3823, "delivered_in_scope_high": 4465, "in_market_low": 2665, "in_market_base": 3440, "in_market_high": 4331, "share_of_global_base": 0.044, "label": "ESTIMATE", "note": "UK 2012 UNKNOWN (inside Other markets); UK 2015-16 ESTIMATE; Germany/China/Canada/Japan 2012 back-cast ESTIMATE" }, { "region": "Other markets", "period": "2012-2016 calendar-year deliveries", "all_911_deliveries_low": 40875, "all_911_deliveries_base": 41645, "all_911_deliveries_high": 43110, "delivered_in_scope_low": 19542, "delivered_in_scope_base": 23885, "delivered_in_scope_high": 29078, "in_market_low": 16220, "in_market_base": 21496, "in_market_high": 28206, "share_of_global_base": 0.272, "label": "ESTIMATE", "note": "UK 2012 UNKNOWN (inside Other markets); UK 2015-16 ESTIMATE; Germany/China/Canada/Japan 2012 back-cast ESTIMATE" }, { "region": "Global", "period": "2012-2016 calendar-year deliveries", "all_911_deliveries_low": 149887, "all_911_deliveries_base": 149887, "all_911_deliveries_high": 150677, "delivered_in_scope_low": 73577, "delivered_in_scope_base": 87855, "delivered_in_scope_high": 103308, "in_market_low": 61069, "in_market_base": 79069, "in_market_high": 100209, "share_of_global_base": 1.0, "label": "ESTIMATE", "note": "UK 2012 UNKNOWN (inside Other markets); UK 2015-16 ESTIMATE; Germany/China/Canada/Japan 2012 back-cast ESTIMATE" } ], "totals": { "global_911_all_variants_delivered_2012_2016": [ 149887, 149887, 150677 ], "global_delivered_low": 73577, "global_delivered_base": 87855, "global_delivered_high": 103308, "in_market_low": 61069, "in_market_base": 79069, "in_market_high": 100209, "us_delivered_low": 24457, "us_delivered_base": 29032, "us_delivered_high": 33743, "us_in_market_low": 20300, "us_in_market_base": 26128, "us_in_market_high": 32731, "coupe_targa_only_delivered_low": 40467, "coupe_targa_only_delivered_base": 53504, "coupe_targa_only_delivered_high": 69217, "coupe_targa_only_in_market_low": 33588, "coupe_targa_only_in_market_base": 48153, "coupe_targa_only_in_market_high": 67140, "us_coupe_targa_only_in_market_low": 11165, "us_coupe_targa_only_in_market_base": 15912, "us_coupe_targa_only_in_market_high": 21930, "label": "ESTIMATE" }, "model_mix_na": [ { "model": "911 50th Anniversary Edition", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 643, "in_scope": true, "is_cabriolet": false, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Carrera", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 7496, "in_scope": true, "is_cabriolet": false, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Carrera 4", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 849, "in_scope": true, "is_cabriolet": false, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Carrera Black Edition (2016)", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 342, "in_scope": true, "is_cabriolet": false, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Carrera 4 Cabriolet", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 679, "in_scope": true, "is_cabriolet": true, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Carrera 4 GTS", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 751, "in_scope": true, "is_cabriolet": false, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Carrera 4 GTS Cabriolet", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 333, "in_scope": true, "is_cabriolet": true, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Carrera 4S", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 5278, "in_scope": true, "is_cabriolet": false, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Carrera 4S Cabriolet", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 3993, "in_scope": true, "is_cabriolet": true, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Carrera Cabriolet (incl. 1,073 2012 builds)", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 5276, "in_scope": true, "is_cabriolet": true, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Carrera Cabriolet Black Edition (2016)", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 178, "in_scope": true, "is_cabriolet": true, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Carrera GTS", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 2326, "in_scope": true, "is_cabriolet": false, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Carrera GTS Cabriolet", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 960, "in_scope": true, "is_cabriolet": true, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Carrera S", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 5547, "in_scope": true, "is_cabriolet": false, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Carrera S Cabriolet (incl. 1,891 2012 builds)", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 6514, "in_scope": true, "is_cabriolet": true, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Targa 4", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 497, "in_scope": true, "is_cabriolet": false, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Targa 4 GTS", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 1345, "in_scope": true, "is_cabriolet": false, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Targa 4S", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 2892, "in_scope": true, "is_cabriolet": false, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "Other models not counted (aggregated; fitment not determined)", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 868, "in_scope": null, "is_cabriolet": false, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 GT3", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 4542, "in_scope": false, "is_cabriolet": false, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 GT3 RS", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 2183, "in_scope": false, "is_cabriolet": false, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Turbo", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 1966, "in_scope": false, "is_cabriolet": false, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Turbo Cabriolet", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 1127, "in_scope": false, "is_cabriolet": true, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Turbo S", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 4426, "in_scope": false, "is_cabriolet": false, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Turbo S Cabriolet", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 2215, "in_scope": false, "is_cabriolet": true, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Turbo S Exclusive", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 118, "in_scope": false, "is_cabriolet": false, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" }, { "model": "911 Carrera T (991.2 only; excluded from share base)", "units_us_canada_2012_2018": 620, "in_scope": false, "is_cabriolet": false, "label": "FACT (unofficial forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "source_id": "S11" } ], "assumptions": [ { "id": "A1", "text": "Scope = 991.1 Carrera, Carrera S, Carrera 4, Carrera 4S, GTS, Targa 4 and Targa 4S, 2012-2016 (not GT3, Turbo, 991.2 or 992), coupe and cabriolet bodies (the pop-up rear spoiler fits). Cabriolets are included. GTS includes Carrera 4 GTS. Out of scope for now: any car whose rear wing was replaced (aftermarket, alternative or factory GT-style wing). Cabriolets are confirmed in scope (CT, Oct 28 2026); a coupe/Targa-only sensitivity is shown for reference. ASSUMPTION (pending CT): the primary figures include Targa 4 GTS cars (1,345 units in the North America compilation). ASSUMPTION (pending CT): the figures also count the 911 50th Anniversary Edition (643 units) and the Carrera Black Edition (342 coupe + 178 Cabriolet), 1,163 units together (2.5% of the in-scope mix), because the fitment lock does not name them." }, { "id": "A2", "text": "Porsche publishes calendar-year deliveries for the whole 911 line, not per generation or per model. In-scope units are derived: all-911 deliveries x 991.1 share of the year x in-scope model share." }, { "id": "A3", "text": "991.1 share of calendar-year all-911 deliveries (low/base/high): 2012 75/85/92% (997 run-out stock; 2011 production exceeded 2011 deliveries by 2,371 units per AR2013); 2013 97/99/100% (997 Turbo-family leftovers, which are excluded anyway); 2014 100%; 2015 97/99/100%; 2016 12/25/40% (991.2 Europe deliveries from Feb 2016, US Carrera/Carrera S from about Mar 2016, Carrera 4/Targa from about Apr-May 2016; 991.1 GTS stock continued)." }, { "id": "A4", "text": "In-scope model share of 991 deliveries: 65/72.5/80%. Base = 45,899 in-scope of 63,344 US+Canada cars (Rennlist compilation, 2012-Nov 2018, Carrera T excluded) = 72.5%. It is a North America proxy that mixes 991.1 and 991.2 and is applied to every region. Low/high is a judgement range for mix differences outside North America (Turbo, GT3 share)." }, { "id": "A5", "text": "Cabriolet fraction of in-scope cars (for the coupe/Targa-only sensitivity): 45/39.1/33% (base = 17,933 of 45,899 in the US+Canada compilation). Low-case uses the highest cabriolet share." }, { "id": "A6", "text": "In-market = in-scope delivered x cumulative still-registered factor of 0.83/0.90/0.97 for cars aged about 10-14 years. Low anchor: UK DVLA data via howmanyleft shows 83.5% (2013 registrations) and 86.7% (2014 registrations) of Porsche UK's all-911 deliveries still licensed or SORN, with figures rounded to 0.1k. Base/high lean on Porsche's statement that over 70% of all 911s ever built are still roadworthy (a far older fleet). No US VIO count by generation is public." }, { "id": "A7", "text": "Regional figures are Porsche subsidiary deliveries by calendar year (all 911 variants). Some 2014 and 2016 regional figures include 918 Spyder units (Porsche notes this); effect is under 1% except possibly 2014 US/Germany. Global 911 totals exclude the 918." }, { "id": "A8", "text": "2012 regional figures for Germany, China, Canada and Japan are back-cast from AR2013 growth percentages (rounded, so shown with a +/-0.5pp band). UK 2012 is UNKNOWN. UK 2015 and 2016 are ESTIMATES from UK two-door share. Other markets = global minus named markets." }, { "id": "A9", "text": "Low/base/high are scenario envelopes made by combining all low or all high inputs. They are not statistical confidence intervals." }, { "id": "A10", "text": "Calendar-year deliveries are used as the stand-in for model years 2012-2016. Porsche's model-year production for all 911s was 28,398 / 29,710 / 31,580 / 31,360 / 31,611 (MY2012-2016), within 1% of calendar-year production, so the difference is small relative to the other uncertainties." } ], "crosschecks": [ { "id": "X1", "text": "UK 2013 registrations: howmanyleft shows about 1.1k licensed + 187 SORN = about 1.29k against Porsche UK 911 deliveries of 1,541 (FACT) -> 83.5% still on UK record", "label": "FACT inputs, derived ratio", "source_id": "S12,S01" }, { "id": "X2", "text": "UK 2014 registrations: about 1.3k licensed + 299 SORN = about 1.6k against Porsche UK 911 deliveries of 1,845 -> 86.7%", "label": "FACT inputs, derived ratio", "source_id": "S12,S02" }, { "id": "X3", "text": "UK 991.1 GTS-family cars still licensed (DVLA via forum, 2021): 1,328 (GTS 879, 4 GTS 355, Targa 4 GTS 94). UK buyers skew GTS-heavy versus the North America mix, so the UK in-scope share may sit above the 72.5% base.", "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S14" }, { "id": "X4", "text": "US+Canada in-scope cars in Rennlist compilation (2012 to Nov 2018, 991.1 and 991.2 mixed): 45,899. Our US+Canada in-scope 991.1 delivered base is about 31,200 (US 29,032 + Canada 2,212), leaving about 14,700 for 991.2 in-scope cars built 2016 to Nov 2018. That residual is plausible (a bit over 2.5 years of 991.2 at US+Canada Carrera-family volumes) but is a consistency check, not a verified figure.", "label": "FACT / ESTIMATE", "source_id": "S11" }, { "id": "X5", "text": "Total 991 generation production (991.1 + 991.2, all variants): 233,540.", "label": "FACT", "source_id": "S07" } ], "unknowns": [ { "id": "U1", "text": "Official Porsche 991.1 vs 991.2 split of deliveries or production: not published." }, { "id": "U2", "text": "Worldwide 911 deliveries by model (Carrera vs Carrera S vs GTS etc.): not published; only a North America compilation exists." }, { "id": "U3", "text": "UK 2012 911 deliveries; other individual European markets (France, Italy, Switzerland and so on) per year." }, { "id": "U4", "text": "US/Germany/other vehicles-in-operation count for 991.1: paywalled (S&P Global Mobility, KBA aggregates); only UK registration data was usable as a cross-check." } ], "sources": [ { "id": "S01", "title": "Porsche AG Annual and Sustainability Report 2013 (2013 and 2012 deliveries, regional 911 figures)", "url": "https://newsroom.porsche.com/dam/jcr:7af1ffc6-a30b-4326-bd02-54922fc4e451/2013_Porsche%20AG%20-%20Annual%20and%20Sustainability%20Report%202013.pdf", "accessed": "2026-10-28" }, { "id": "S02", "title": "Porsche AG Annual Report 2014", "url": "https://newsroom.porsche.com/dam/jcr:945c3b38-b038-4fb0-b28f-6904c4a5f461/Annual%20report%202014,%20Porsche%20AG.pdf", "accessed": "2026-10-28" }, { "id": "S03", "title": "Porsche AG Annual and Sustainability Report 2015", "url": "https://newsroom.porsche.com/dam/jcr:c77b9879-fd2e-423c-8763-ac022ed71692/2015_Porsche%20AG%20-%20Annual%20and%20Sustainability%20Report%202015.pdf", "accessed": "2026-10-28" }, { "id": "S04", "title": "Porsche AG Annual and Sustainability Report 2016 (Performance)", "url": "https://newsroom.porsche.com/dam/jcr:5a22dc49-91b7-4b5f-b927-afd29a944bb7/Porsche%20Annual%20and%20Sustainability%20Report%202016%20-%20Performance%20-.pdf", "accessed": "2026-10-28" }, { "id": "S05", "title": "Porsche 2012 results press release (26,203 911 deliveries), Spanish edition", "url": "https://newsroom.porsche.com/es/ppdb/2013/03/el-mejor-ao-en-la-historia-de-porsche1.html", "accessed": "2026-10-28" }, { "id": "S06", "title": "Porsche 'Production anniversary of the 911' (1 millionth 911) PDF: calendar and model-year production; over 70% still roadworthy", "url": "https://newsroom.porsche.com/dam/jcr:5b57016c-4bd7-48f0-8815-8e00e93a6327/PAG_1Mio911_PM_EN_06.pdf", "accessed": "2026-10-28" }, { "id": "S07", "title": "Porsche Newsroom: last 991 generation 911 (233,540 units of the 991 generation)", "url": "https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2019/products/porsche-last-911-generation-991-19601.html", "accessed": "2026-10-28" }, { "id": "S08", "title": "PCNA: Porsche reports record sales in 2013 (US 911: 10,442; 2012: 8,528)", "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/porsche-reports-record-sales-in-2013-21-percent-increase-over-2012-238605411.html", "accessed": "2026-10-28" }, { "id": "S09", "title": "PCNA: December and annual sales 2014 (US 911: 10,433; 911/918 line 10,529)", "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/porsche-cars-north-america-reports-december-and-annual-sales-300015777.html", "accessed": "2026-10-28" }, { "id": "S10", "title": "PCNA: Porsche sets record in 2016 with 54,280 vehicles delivered in the US", "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/porsche-sets-record-in-2016-with-54280-vehicles-delivered-in-the-us-300385593.html", "accessed": "2026-10-28" }, { "id": "S11", "title": "Rennlist 'Numbers...' thread: US+Canada 991 production by model through 1 Nov 2018 (unofficial, forum compilation of PCNA/PCL data)", "url": "https://rennlist.com/forums/991/1109178-numbers.html", "accessed": "2026-10-28" }, { "id": "S12", "title": "howmanyleft.co.uk Porsche 911 family: UK licensed and SORN by year of first registration (DVLA data, latest quarter 2026 Q2)", "url": "https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/family/porsche_porsche_911?make=porsche", "accessed": "2026-10-28" }, { "id": "S13", "title": "DVLA/DfT vehicle licensing statistics data files (VEH0120/VEH0160)", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/vehicle-licensing-statistics-data-files", "accessed": "2026-10-28" }, { "id": "S14", "title": "911uk forum: 991.1 GTS UK DVLA counts (1,328 licensed incl. 4 GTS and Targa 4 GTS)", "url": "https://911uk.com/porsche/991-1-gts-uk-production-numbers.114051/", "accessed": "2026-10-28" }, { "id": "S15", "title": "ukmotoring: Porsche 911 licensed in GB (57,603 at June 2026, all generations)", "url": "https://www.ukmotoring.co.uk/cars/porsche/911/", "accessed": "2026-10-28" }, { "id": "S16", "title": "Press-Enterprise: Porsche announces US availability date for 2017 Carrera and Targa (991.2 timing)", "url": "https://www.pressenterprise.com/2015/10/09/porsche-announces-us-availability-date-for-2017-carrera-and-targa/", "accessed": "2026-10-28" }, { "id": "S17", "title": "Autoweek: 2017 Porsche 911 Carrera first drive (991.2 timing)", "url": "https://www.autoweek.com/drives/a1881131/2017-porsche-911-carrera-first-drive/", "accessed": "2026-10-28" }, { "id": "S18", "title": "Porsche Newsroom: 911 generations 991 PDF", "url": "https://newsroom.porsche.com/dam/jcr:205618a9-5c97-400f-b3bf-ec66c495c750/07_911er_Generationen_991_EN.pdf", "accessed": "2026-10-28" }, { "id": "S19", "title": "Goodcarbadcar US 911 sales (REJECTED: disagrees with PCNA for 2013 and 2015)", "url": "https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/porsche-911-sales-figures/", "accessed": "2026-10-28" }, { "id": "S20", "title": "S&P Global Mobility VIO product page (US vehicles-in-operation by model is paywalled; no public 991 count)", "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/products/automotive-market-data-analysis.html", "accessed": "2026-10-28" }, { "id": "M1", "title": "Method: in-scope deliveries = all-911 deliveries x 991.1 share (A3) x in-scope model share (A4), optionally x (1 - cabriolet fraction) (A5)", "url": "", "accessed": "2026-10-28" }, { "id": "M2", "title": "Method: in-market = in-scope deliveries x survival factor (A6)", "url": "", "accessed": "2026-10-28" } ], "totals_excl_4gts": { "global_delivered_low": 69683, "global_delivered_base": 83206, "global_delivered_high": 97841, "in_market_low": 57837, "in_market_base": 74885, "in_market_high": 94906, "us_delivered_low": 23163, "us_delivered_base": 27496, "us_delivered_high": 31957, "us_in_market_low": 19226, "us_in_market_base": 24745, "us_in_market_high": 30999, "coupe_targa_only_delivered_low": 38325, "coupe_targa_only_delivered_base": 50673, "coupe_targa_only_delivered_high": 65554, "coupe_targa_only_in_market_low": 31811, "coupe_targa_only_in_market_base": 45605, "coupe_targa_only_in_market_high": 63587, "us_coupe_targa_only_in_market_low": 10574, "us_coupe_targa_only_in_market_base": 15070, "us_coupe_targa_only_in_market_high": 20769, "label": "ESTIMATE", "four_gts_units_na": 2429, "in_scope_units_na": 45899, "four_gts_share": 0.0529, "note": "Same method and factors as totals; in-scope model share scaled by (1 - 0.0529), removing Carrera 4 GTS (751 + 333 cabriolet) and Targa 4 GTS (1,345) units, 2,429 of 45,899 in-scope units in the North America compilation. Share applied uniformly to low/base/high and all regions." } }